Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
