A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
